Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US is “highly likely” to default as early as June if Congress fails to lift or suspend the legal limit on government borrowing.
Here’s a daily guide to projected cash flows and other key events starting June 1, including when government bonds mature, creating expenditures for the US Treasury, and creating government revenue when they are auctioned. . The revenue and spending estimates were drawn from analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center and Goldman Sachs Group.
June 1st
- Yellen identified this day as the earliest the Treasury could run out of enough cash to meet all of its obligations.
- Estimated payments due: $101 billion, primarily for Medicare, military pay, military and civil service retirement, veterans benefits and supplemental Social Security
- Estimated revenue: $16 billion to $21 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $117 billion of T-bill maturities, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions
june 2
- Payments: $40 billion – Department of Social Security, Medicaid and Education
- Revenue: $13 billion to $14 billion
June 5
- Payments: $13 billion – Medicare, Defense Department vendors and SNAP, also known as the food-stamp program
- Revenue: $20 billion to $21 billion
- Debt Maturity and Issuance: 13-Week and 26-Week Bill Auctions
June 6
- Payments: $17 billion – Medicaid, defense vendors, education
- Revenue: $6 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $139 billion in T-bill maturities, 17-week bill auctions
june 7
- Payments: $16 billion — defense vendors, transportation, tax refunds
- Revenue: $14 billion to $19 billion
- Debt Maturity and Issuance: 17-Week Bill Auction
June 8
- This day is Morgan Stanley’s base case for the X-date, the day the US government cannot pay its bills.
- Payments: $18 billion – Medicaid, defense vendors, education
- Revenue: $8 billion to $10 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $110 billion of T-bill maturities, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions
June 9
- Goldman Sachs estimates that Treasury cash will be reduced by $30 billion by this date, a significant minimum to reach the level indicated in the past.
- Payments: $21 billion – federal wages, Medicaid, education
- Revenue: $13 billion to $15 billion
June 12
- Payments: $23 billion — Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., federal wages, SNAP
- Revenue: $30 billion to $32 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: auctions of 13-week and 26-week bills, $40 billion 3-year and $35 billion 10-year notes
June 13
- Payments: $15 billion – Defense Vendors, Medicaid, Medicare
- Revenue: $17 billion to $23 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $124 billion of T-bill maturities, 52-week bill auctions and $18 billion of 30-year bond auctions
June 14
- Payments: $38 billion – Social Security, tax refunds, Medicaid
- Revenue: $44 billion to $45 billion
- Debt Maturity and Issuance: 17-Week Bill Auction
June 15
- Payments: $22 billion – military pay, Medicaid, interest on public debt
- Revenue: $80 billion to $82 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $183 billion in T-bill maturities, $35 billion in cash management bills maturing, $45 billion in note maturities, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions
June 16
- Payments: $12 billion – Medicare, Medicaid, Defense Vendors
- Revenue: $19 billion to $32 billion
June 20
- Payout: $16 billion — Defense vendor, education, Snap
- Revenue: $28 billion to $30 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $119 billion of T-bill maturities, 13-week and 26-week bill auctions
June 21
- Payments: $40 billion — Social Security, Medicaid, Defense Sellers
- Revenue: $21 billion to $28 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: the 17-week bill auction and the $12 billion 20-year bond auction
June 22
- Payments: $26 billion – ACA Marketplace (part of Obamacare), tax refunds, transportation
- Revenue: $19 billion to $27 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $105 billion in note maturities, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions, $19 billion in 5-year TIPS auctions
June 23
- Payments: $19 billion – Federal salaries, Medicare, Veterans Affairs
- Revenue: $17 billion to $18 billion
June 26
- Payments: $17 billion – Federal Pay, Medicare, SNAP
- Revenue: $25 billion to $27 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: 13-week and 26-week bill auctions, $42 billion 2-year note auction
June 27
- Payments: $14 billion — Defense vendors, Medicare, Medicaid
- Revenue: $8 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $83 billion in notes maturing, $43 billion in 5-year notes
June 28
- Payments: $40 billion — Social Security, tax refunds, education
- Revenue: $15 billion to $17 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: 17-week bill auction, $35 billion 7-year note auction and $22 billion 2-year floating note auction
June 29
- Payments: $16 billion – Medicaid, education, federal wages
- Revenue: $14 billion to $15 billion
- Debt maturities and issuances: $114 billion in note maturities, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions
June 30
- Payments: $98 billion – Medicare, loan interest, veterans benefits, military pay and retirement, supplemental Social Security
- Revenue: $13 billion to $31 billion. Treasury would also gain an estimated $145 billion of headroom under the debt ceiling through the availability of additional extraordinary accounting measures.
- Debt maturities and issuances: $110 billion of notes matured
Bloomberg’s Alexandra Harris and Benjamin Purvis contributed to this report.
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